Articles | Open Access | https://doi.org/10.55640/ijme-06-01-03

Data-Driven Predictive Diagnostics of High-Voltage Systems in German Electric Vehicles Using CAN Messages, Freeze-Frame Data, and Maintenance History

Samoilov Alexey , Automotive Workshop Master Germany, Hilden

Abstract

Germany registered 545,142 battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) in 2025, representing a 43.2% year-on-year increase and a record 19.1% market share, placing growing pressure on authorized dealer networks to maintain complex high-voltage (HV) systems reliably. This study investigates whether a unified data pipeline combining Controller Area Network (CAN) real-time frames, OBD-II freeze-frame diagnostic snapshots, and dealer service records can enable dealer-level predictive diagnostics for German EV high-voltage systems. The methodology applies a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature (2020-2025), analysis of published benchmark datasets, and structured case evaluation of three OEM diagnostic platforms used in German dealerships. Results indicate that ensemble machine learning models, specifically Random Forest regression for State-of-Health (SoH) estimation (R-squared = 0.94, RMSE = 1.52%) and LSTM-based anomaly detectors for freeze-frame pattern recognition, reduce unplanned high-voltage fault events by an estimated 28-36% compared with schedule-only maintenance approaches. The study proposes a dealer-context integration architecture linking vehicle telematics to Dealer Management Systems. Findings are relevant for EV service managers, OEM technical trainers, and automotive dealership groups operating in high-BEV-penetration markets.

Keywords

CAN bus diagnostics, freeze-frame data, State of Health, State of Charge, predictive maintenance, high-voltage battery systems, German electric vehicles, Random Forest, LSTM, dealer management system.

References

European Alternative Fuels Observatory. (2025). Germany: BEV registrations surge by 54% in April 2025. European Commission. Retrieved from: https://alternative-fuels-observatory.ec.europa.eu/general-information/news/germany-bev-registrations-surge-54-april-2025 (date accessed: March 18, 2026).

Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt. (2025, July 16). Record high for battery-electric passenger cars (BEV) in the first half of 2025. Retrieved from: https://www.kba.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/Allgemein/2025/pm31_2025_rekordhoch.html (date accessed: March 27, 2026).

European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association. (2025, October 28). New car registrations: +0.9% in September 2025 year-to-date; battery-electric 16.1% market share. Retrieved from: https://www.acea.auto/pc-registrations/new-car-registrations-0-9-in-september-2025-year-to-date-battery-electric-16-1-market-share/ (date accessed: April 9, 2026).

Hnatov, A., Arhun, S., Ulianets, O., & Ivanov, D. (2025). Diagnostics of electric vehicles using OBD-II: Principles, capabilities, and prospects. Automobile Transport, 56, 5–12. https://doi.org/10.30977/AT.2219-8342.2025.56.0.01.

Siemens Digital Industries. (2024). The true cost of downtime 2024: A comprehensive analysis. Siemens AG. Retrieved from: https://assets.new.siemens.com/siemens/assets/api/uuid%3A1b43afb5-2d07-47f7-9eb7-893fe7d0bc59/tcod-2024_original.pdf (date accessed: April 18, 2026).

Kulkarni, S. V., Arjun, G., Gupta, S., Sinha, R., & Shukla, A. (2025). Advanced battery diagnostics for electric vehicles using CAN based BMS data with EKF and data driven predictive models. Scientific Reports, 15, 32848. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-18042-6.

Rout, S., Samal, S. K., Gelmecha, D. J., & Mishra, S. (2025). Estimation of state of health for lithium-ion batteries using advanced data-driven techniques. Scientific Reports, 15, 30438. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-93775-y.

Li, X., Gao, X., Zhang, Z., Chen, Q., & Wang, Z. (2024). Fault diagnosis and detection for battery system in real-world electric vehicles based on long-term feature outlier analysis. IEEE Transactions on Transportation Electrification, 10(1), 1668–1679. https://doi.org/10.1109/TTE.2023.3288394.

Jun, H.-B., Jung, S., Kim, H., Jang, M., Park, B., & Sung, H. (2025). A case study on the DTC prediction of commercial vehicles using machine learning approach. International Journal of Automotive Technology, 26(6), 1327–1341. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12239-025-00223-x.

Hafeez, A. B., Alonso, E., & Riaz, A. (2024). DTC-TranGru: Improving the performance of the next-DTC prediction model with Transformer and GRU. In Proceedings of the 39th ACM/SIGAPP Symposium on Applied Computing (SAC 2024) (pp. 927–934). Association for Computing Machinery. https://doi.org/10.1145/3605098.3635962.

Arévalo, P., Ochoa-Correa, D., & Villa-Ávila, E. (2024). A systematic review on the integration of artificial intelligence into energy management systems for electric vehicles: Recent advances and future perspectives. World Electric Vehicle Journal, 15(8), 364. https://doi.org/10.3390/wevj15080364.

Khaleghi, S., Hosen, M. S., Van Mierlo, J., & Berecibar, M. (2024). Towards machine-learning driven prognostics and health management of Li-ion batteries: A comprehensive review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 192, 114224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2023.114224.

SAE International. (2024). J1979-DA: Digital annex of E/E diagnostic test modes. Retrieved from: https://saemobilus.sae.org/standards/j1979da_202404-j1979-da-digital-annex-e-e-diagnostic-test-modes (date accessed: May 8, 2026).

Zhang, J., Wang, Y., Jiang, B., et al. (2023). Realistic fault detection of Li-ion battery via dynamical deep learning. Nature Communications, 14, 5940. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41226-5.

Hafeez, A. B., Alonso, E., & Riaz, A. (2022). DTCEncoder: A Swiss army knife architecture for DTC exploration, prediction, search and model interpretation. In 2022 21st IEEE International Conference on Machine Learning and Applications (ICMLA) (pp. 519–524). IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICMLA55696.2022.00085.

Zonta, T., da Costa, C. A., da Rosa Righi, R., de Lima, M. J., da Trindade, E. S., & Li, G. P. (2020). Predictive maintenance in the Industry 4.0: A systematic literature review. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 150, 106889. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cie.2020.106889.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. (2024, May 13). Manufacturer communications. U.S. Department of Transportation. Retrieved from: https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle-manufacturers/manufacturer-communications (date accessed: June 16, 2026).

Yu, J., Guo, Y., & Zhang, W. (2024). Anomaly detection for charging voltage profiles in battery cells in an energy storage station based on robust principal component analysis. Applied Sciences, 14(17), 7552. https://doi.org/10.3390/app14177552.

Liu, H., Hao, S., Han, T., Zhou, F., & Li, G. (2023). Random forest-based online detection and location of internal short circuits in lithium battery energy storage systems with limited number of sensors. IEEE Transactions on Instrumentation and Measurement, 72, 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1109/TIM.2023.3304674.

Article Statistics

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Copyright License

Download Citations

How to Cite

Data-Driven Predictive Diagnostics of High-Voltage Systems in German Electric Vehicles Using CAN Messages, Freeze-Frame Data, and Maintenance History. (2026). International Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 6(01), 06-16. https://doi.org/10.55640/ijme-06-01-03