This paper analyzes the potential risks and consequences of water scarcity for the agricultural economy of Uzbekistan. The depletion of water resources not only reduces productivity in the field, but also directly affects financial flows, market price volatility, and food security. Historical processes - the drying up of the Aral Sea, over-irrigation practices, salinization, and land reclamation problems - have exacerbated current economic pressures. At the same time, climate change, more frequent droughts, and increased competition for water resources are expected to pose serious threats to the sustainability of agriculture in the future. The study discusses the economic consequences of water scarcity, their impact on farms, the domestic market, and export potential. The solutions proposed include the widespread introduction of water-saving technologies, the introduction of digital control over water distribution, and enhanced regional cooperation.

Water scarcity, agricultural economics, irrigation efficiency, lessons from the Oral River Basin, climate change, drought risk, water management, food security, water-saving technologies, financial sustainability.

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