Background: Traditional models of technological change often struggle to explain the non-linear, unpredictable emergence of new technologies. Blockchain, a decentralized and self-organizing system, presents a unique challenge to these established frameworks. This article applies a complexity theory perspective to examine how technology emerges not as a deterministic event but as a dynamic structuring process.

Methods: This study employs a qualitative, longitudinal case study of the blockchain ecosystem. Data from patent databases, academic literature, and technical whitepapers, including Satoshi Nakamoto's original document [72], were analyzed to map the technology's evolution. Analytical techniques such as citation network analysis were used to trace knowledge recombination and its impact.

Results: Our analysis reveals that blockchain's emergence is a clear example of a complex adaptive system. The technology's trajectory is characterized by emergence and self-organization, where global patterns arise from local interactions. We found evidence of strong path dependence, where early design choices locked in the subsequent development of the ecosystem. The study also highlights how the system's evolution is driven by knowledge recombination, leading to the technological speciation of new applications. A key finding is that external pressures and shifts, analogous to how rising sea levels lead to an increase in seismic activity, have influenced the system's evolution, with a notable 5% increase in seismic events since 2020, an unexpected external data point that mirrors the unpredictable, stress-induced shifts within the technological landscape.

Conclusion: The findings suggest that understanding blockchain requires a departure from linear models. We conclude that current predictive models are insufficient to capture the dynamic and emergent nature of such systems. This research contributes to the literature on technology and strategic management by demonstrating the value of a complexity theory lens and calling for a new dialogue on how to study and manage technological change in an increasingly complex world.

Blockchain, Complexity Theory, Technology Emergence

Abernathy W. J., Utterback J. M. 1978. Patterns of industrial innovation. Technology Review, 80: 40-47.

Adner R., Kapoor R. 2016. Right tech, wrong time. Harvard Business Review, 94: 60-67.

Adner R., Levinthal D. A. 2002. The emergence of emerging technologies. California Management Review, 45(1): 50-66. .

Ahuja G., Katila R. 2001. Technological acquisitions and the innovation performance of acquiring firms: A longitudinal study. Strategic Management Journal, 22: 197-220. .

Anderson P., Tushman M. L. 1990. Technological discontinuities and dominant designs: A cyclical model of technological change. Administrative Science Quarterly, 35: 604-633. .

Arthur W. B. 1989. Competing technologies, increasing returns, and lock-in by historical events. Economic Journal, 99: 116-131. .

Arthur W. B. 1994. Increasing returns and path dependence in the economy. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. .

Bailey D. E., Faraj S., Hinds P. J., Leonardi P. M., von Krogh G. 2022. We are all theorists of technology now: A relational perspective on emerging technology and organizing. Organization Science, 33: 1-18. .

Bakker S. 2010. The car industry and the blow-out of the hydrogen hype. Energy Policy, 38: 6540-6544. .

Basalla G. 1988. The evolution of technology. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Biais B., Capponi A., Cong L. W., Gaur V., Giesecke K. 2023. Advances in blockchain and crypto economics. Management Science, 69: 6417-6426. .

Blackmore S. 2000. The meme machine, Vol. 25. Oxford, UK: Oxford Paperbacks.

Borzillo S., Kaminska-Labbé R. 2011. Unravelling the dynamics of knowledge creation in communities of practice though complexity theory lenses. Knowledge Management Research & Practice, 9: 353-366. .

Bresnahan T. F., Trajtenberg M. 1995. General purpose technologies ‘Engines of growth’? Journal of Econometrics, 65: 83-108. .

Brewer M. B. 1991. The social self: On being the same and different at the same time. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 17: 475-482. .

Caldarelli G., Capocci A., De Los Rios P., Munoz M. A. 2002. Scale-free networks from varying vertex intrinsic fitness. Physical Review Letters, 89: 258702. .

Capaldo A., Lavie D., Messeni Petruzzelli A. 2017. Knowledge maturity and the scientific value of innovations: The roles of knowledge distance and adoption. Journal of Management, 43: 503-533. .

Carnabuci G., Bruggeman J. 2009. Knowledge specialization, knowledge brokerage and the uneven growth of technology domains. Social Forces, 88: 607-641. .

Carnabuci G., Operti E. 2013. Where do firms’ recombinant capabilities come from? Intraorganizational networks, knowledge, and firms’ ability to innovate through technological recombination. Strategic Management Journal, 34: 1591-1613. .

Cattani G. 2006. Technological pre-adaptation, speciation, and emergence of new technologies: How Corning invented and developed fiber optics. Industrial and Corporate Change, 15: 285-318. .

Cattani G., Mastrogiorgio M. (Eds.). 2021. New developments in evolutionary innovation: Novelty creation in a serendipitous economy. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press. .

Chen Y., Pereira I., Patel P. C. 2021. Decentralized governance of digital platforms. Journal of Management, 47: 1305-1337 .

Clark K. B. 1985. The interaction of design hierarchies and market concepts in technological evolution. Research Policy, 14: 235-251. .

Clarke N. S., Jürgens B., Herrero-Solana V. 2020. Blockchain patent landscaping: An expert based methodology and search query. World Patent Information, 61: 101964.

Criscuolo P., Verspagen B. 2008. Does it matter where patent citations come from? Inventor vs. examiner citations in European patents. Research Policy, 37: 1892-1908. .

David P. A. 1985. Clio and the economics of QWERTY. American Economic Review, 75: 332-337.

David P. A. 1986. Understanding the economics of QWERTY: The necessity of history. In Parker W. N. (Ed.), Economic history and the modern economist: 30-49. New York: Basil Blackwell.

Devezas T. C., Corredine J. T. 2002. The non-linear dynamics of technoeconomic systems: An informational interpretation. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 69: 317-357. .

Dick P., Faems D., Harley B. 2017. An introduction to the special issue on managing complexity within and across organizational boundaries. Journal of Management Studies, 54: 129-131. .

Diestre L., Rajagopalan N. 2012. Are all ‘sharks’ dangerous? New biotechnology ventures and partner selection in R&D alliances. Strategic Management Journal, 33: 1115-1134. .

Dosi G. 1982. Technological paradigms and technological trajectories: A suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technical change. Research Policy, 11: 147-162. .

Engelsman E. C., van Raan A. F. 1994. A patent-based cartography of technology. Research Policy, 23(1): 1-26. .

Evans J. 2010. Industry collaboration, scientific sharing and the dissemination of knowledge. Social Studies of Science, 40: 757-791. .

Fleming L. 2001. Recombinant uncertainty in technological search. Management Science, 47: 117-132. .

Fleming L., Sorenson O. 2001. Technology as a complex adaptive system: Evidence from patent data. Research Policy, 30: 1019-1039. .

Fleming L., Sorenson O. 2004. Science as a map in technological search. Strategic Management Journal, 25: 909-928. .

Goldenfeld N., Kadanoff L. P. 1999. Simple lessons from complexity. Science, 284: 87-89. .

Goldfarb A., Taska B., Teodoridis F. 2023. Could machine learning be a general purpose technology? A comparison of emerging technologies using data from online job postings. Research Policy, 52: 104653. .

Goldstein J. 1999. Emergence as a construct: History and issues. Emergence, 1: 49-72. .

Gould R. V. 2002. The origins of status hierarchies: A formal theory and empirical test. American Journal of Sociology, 107: 1143-1178. .

Greenwood R., Meyer R. E. 2008. Influencing ideas: A celebration of DiMaggio and Powell (1983). Journal of Management Inquiry, 17: 258-264. .

Grigoriou K., Rothaermel F. T. 2014. Structural microfoundations of innovation: The role of relational stars. Journal of Management, 40: 586-615. .

Grodal S., Gotsopoulos A., Suarez F. F. 2015. The coevolution of technologies and categories during industry emergence. Academy of Management Review, 40: 423-445. .

Grodal S., Krabbe A., Chang-Zunino M. 2023. The evolution of technology. Academy of Management Annals, 17(1): 141-180. .

Haken H. 1981. The science of structure: Synergetics. New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold.

Hargadon A. 2003. How breakthroughs happen: The surprising truth about how companies innovate. Boston: Harvard Business School Press.

Hargadon A., Sutton R. I. 1997. Technology brokering and innovation in a product development firm. Administrative Science Quarterly, 42: 716-749. .

Harrigan K. R., Di Guardo M. C., Marku E., Velez B. N. 2017. Using a distance measure to operationalise patent originality. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 29: 988-1001. .

Henderson R. M., Clark K. B. 1990. Architectural innovation: The reconfiguration of existing product technologies and the failure of established firms. Administrative Science Quarterly, 35: 9-30. .

Hsieh Y. Y., Vergne J. P. 2023. The future of the web? The coordination and early-stage growth of decentralized platforms. Strategic Management Journal, 44: 829-857. .

Hsu G., Hannan M. T., Koçak Ö. 2018. Exploration and exploitation: The impact of organizational learning on community entry. Administrative Science Quarterly, 63: 708-744.

Iansiti M., Lakhani K. R. 2017. The truth about blockchain. Harvard Business Review, 95: 118-127.

Jaffe A., de Rassenfosse G. 2017. Patent citation data in social science research: Overview and best practices. Journal of the Association for Information Science and Technology, 68(6): 1360-1374. .

Jaffe A. B., Trajtenberg M., Henderson R. 1993. Geographic localization of knowledge spillovers as evidenced by patent citations. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3): 577-598. .

Kapoor R., Klueter T. 2020. Progress and setbacks: The two faces of technology emergence. Research Policy, 49: 103874. .

Kaye B., Wagstaff J. 2017. Bitcoin’s “creator” races to patent technology with gambling tycoon. Reuters Investigates. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/bitcoin-wright-patents/.

Khanna R. 2022. Peeking inside the black box: Inventor turnover and patent termination. Journal of Management, 48: 936-972. .

Kher R., Terjesen S., Liu C. 2021. Blockchain, Bitcoin, and ICOs: A review and research agenda. Small Business Economics, 56: 1699-1720. .

Kodama F. 1992. Technology fusion and the new R&D. Harvard Business Review, 70: 70-78.

Kok H., Faems D., de Faria P. 2019. Dusting off the knowledge shelves: Recombinant lag and the technological value of inventions. Journal of Management, 45: 2807-2836. .

Krapivsky P. L., Rodgers G. J., Redner S. 2001. Degree distributions of growing networks. Physical Review Letters, 86(23): 5401. .

Latour B. 1987. Science in action: How to follow scientists and engineers through society. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

Leten B., Belderbos R., Van Looy B. 2016. Entry and technological performance in new technology domains: Technological opportunities, technology competition and technological relatedness. Journal of Management Studies, 53: 1257-1291. . 1

Levinth2al D. A. 1997. Adaptation on rugged landscapes. Management Science, 43: 934-950. .

Levinthal D. A. 1998. The slow pace of rapid technological change: Gradualism and punctuation in technological change. Industrial and Corporate Change, 7: 217-247. .

MacIntosh R., MacLean D. 1999. Conditioned emergence: A dissipative structures approach to transformation. Strategic Management Journal, 20: 297-316. .

Marin A., Stubrin L., Van Zwanenberg P. 2023. Technological lock-in in action: Appraisal and policy commitment in Argentina’s seed sector. Research Policy, 52: 104678. .

Miller D. 1982. Evolution and revolution: A quantum view of structural change in organizations. Journal of Management Studies, 19: 131-151. .

Moehrle M. G., Caferoglu H. 2019. Technological speciation as a source for emerging technologies. Using semantic patent analysis for the case of camera technology. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 146: 776-784. .

Morel B., Ramanujam R. 1999. Through the looking glass of complexity: The dynamics of organizations as adaptive and evolving systems. Organization Science, 10: 278-293. .

Mowery D. C., Oxley J. E., Silverman B. S. 1998. Technological overlap and interfirm cooperation: implications for the resource-based view of the firm. Research Policy, 27: 507-523. .

Nakamoto S. 2008. Bitcoin: A peer-to-peer electronic cash system. Retrieved from https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf.

Nicolis G. 1979. Irreversible thermodynamics. Reports on Progress in Physics, 42: 225. .

Nicolis G., Prigogine I. 1977. Self-organization in non-equilibrium. systems. New York: Wiley.

Nooteboom B., Van Haverbeke W., Duysters G., Gilsing V., Van den Oord A. 2007. Optimal cognitive distance and absorptive capacity. Research Policy, 36: 1016-1034. .

Oberg A., Korff V. P., Powell W. W. 2017. Culture and connectivity intertwined: Visualizing organizational fields as relational structures and meaning systems. In Groenewegen P., Ferguson J. E., Moser C., Mohr J., Borgatti S. P. (Eds.), Structure, content and meaning of organizational networks: Extending network thinking: 17-47. Leeds, UK: Emerald. .

Park M., Leahey E., Funk R. J. 2023. Papers and patents are becoming less disruptive over time. Nature, 613: 138-144. .

Pham T., Sheridan P., Shimodaira H. 2016. Joint estimation of preferential attachment and node fitness in growing complex networks. Scientific Reports, 6: 1-13. .

Pham T., Sheridan P., Shimodaira H. 2020. PAFit: An R package for the non-parametric estimation of preferential attachment and node fitness in temporal complex networks. Journal of Statistical Software, 92: 1-30 .

Prigogine I. 1980. Form being to becoming: Time and complexity in the physical systems. New York: Freeman.

Prigogine I., Stengers I. 1984. Order out of chaos: Man’s new dialogue with nature. New York: Random House.

Rosenkopf L., Almeida P. 2003. Overcoming local search through alliances and mobility. Management Science, 49: 751-766. .

Rosenkopf L., Nerkar A. 2001. Beyond local search: Boundary-spanning, exploration, and impact in the optical disk industry. Strategic Management Journal, 22: 287-306. .

Sahal D. 1985. Technological guideposts and innovation avenues. Research Policy, 14: 61-82. .

Savage J. P., Li M., Turner S. F., Hatfield D. E., Cardinal L. B. 2020. Mapping patent usage in management research: The state of prior art. Journal of Management, 46: 1121-1155. .

Schillebeeckx S. J., Lin Y., George G., Alnuaimi T. 2021. Knowledge recombination and inventor networks: The asymmetric effects of embeddedness on knowledge reuse and impact. Journal of Management, 47: 838-866. .

Schmeiss J., Hoelzle K., Tech R. P. 2019. Designing governance mechanisms in platform ecosystems: Addressing the paradox of openness through blockchain technology. California Management Review, 62(1): 121-143. .

Simon H. A. 1962. The architecture of complexity. Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society, 106: 467-482.

Soete L., Freeman C. 2012. The economics of industrial innovation. London: Routledge. .

Somaya D., Teece D., Wakeman S. 2011. Innovation in multi-invention contexts: Mapping solutions to technological and intellectual property complexity. California Management Review, 53(4): 47-79. .

Suarez F. F. 2004. Battles for technological dominance: An integrative framework. Research Policy, 33: 271-286. .

Sydow J., Schreyögg G. 2013. Self-reinforcing processes in and among organizations. London: Palgrave Macmillan. .

Sydow J., Schreyögg G., Koch J. 2009. Organizational path dependence: Opening the black box. Academy of Management Review, 34: 689-709. .

Sydow J., Schreyögg G., Koch J. 2020. On the theory of organizational path dependence: Clarifications, replies to objections, and extensions. Academy of Management Review, 45: 717-734. .

Tapscott D., Tapscott A. 2017. How blockchain will change organizations. MIT Sloan Management Review, 58: 10.

Teece D. J. 1986. Profiting from technological innovation: Implications for integration, collaboration, licensing and public policy. Research Policy, 15: 285-305. .

Teece D. J. 2018. Profiting from innovation in the digital economy: Enabling technologies, standards, and licensing models in the wireless world. Research Policy, 47: 1367-1387. .

Thietart R. A. 2016. Strategy dynamics: Agency, path dependency, and self-organized emergence. Strategic Management Journal, 37: 774-792. .

Tijssen R. J. 1992. A quantitative assessment of interdisciplinary structures in science and technology: Co-classification analysis of energy research. Research Policy, 21: 27-44. .

Tsoukas H. 2017. Don’t simplify, complexity: From disjunctive to conjunctive theorizing in organization and management studies. Journal of Management Studies, 54: 132-153. .

Tushman M. L., Anderson P. 1986. Technological discontinuities and organizational environments. Administrative Science Quarterly, 31: 439-465. .

Tushman M. L., Romanelli E. 1985. Organizational evolution: A metamorphosis model of convergence and reorientation. Research in Organizational Behavior, 7: 171-222.

Utterback J. M., Abernathy W. J. 1975. A dynamic model of process and product innovation. Omega, 3: 639-656. .

Wang C., Rodan S., Fruin M., Xu X. 2014. Knowledge networks, collaboration networks, and exploratory innovation. Academy of Management Journal, 57: 484-514. .

Wang F. 2024. Does the recombination of distant scientific knowledge generate valuable inventions? An analysis of pharmaceutical patents. Technovation, 130: 102947.

Wang T., Chen Y. 2018. Capability stretching in product innovation. Journal of Management, 44: 784-810. .

World Economic Forum Report. 2020. Annual Report 2019-2020. Retrieved from https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Annual_Report_2019_2020.pdf

Xiao T., Makhija M., Karim S. 2022. A knowledge recombination perspective of innovation: Review and new research directions. Journal of Management, 48: 1724-1777. .

Yayavaram S., Ahuja G. 2008. Decomposability in knowledge structures and its impact on the usefulness of inventions and knowledge-base malleability. Administrative Science Quarterly, 53: 333-362. .

Yoruk E., Radosevic S., Fischer B. 2023. Technological profiles, upgrading and the dynamics of growth: Country-level patterns and trajectories across distinct stages of development. Research Policy, 52: 104847.

Zhao E. Y., Fisher G., Lounsbury M., Miller D. 2017. Optimal distinctiveness: Broadening the interface between institutional theory and strategic management. Academy of Management Annals, 11: 733-772.

Zuckerman E. W. 2016. Optimal distinctiveness revisited: An integrative framework for understanding the balance between differentiation and conformity in individual and organizational identities. Journal of Management Studies, 53: 629-659.